As per the Adobe Digital Economy Index holiday predict, U.S. consumers will spend an unprecedented $207 billion on online shopping this festive season, despite the challenges from a stretched supply chain and evolving purchasing habits.
But they should be prepared for massive numbers of messages out of stock with higher prices and lower discounts when they shop on the internet in December and November, Adobe warns.
The report, made up of anonymized data gathered from more than 1 trillion visitors to U.S. retail websites, forecasts that sales from e-commerce will grow by 10% between November and December, which is over the 33% increase last year.
Adobe anticipates that sales will be more evenly distributed this year than during the previous season, with Black Friday, Thanksgiving, Black Friday, and Cyber Monday not having as significant year-over-year growth as it has seen in the last two years.
The online sales during the three days are predicted to exceed $36 billion; however, the annual average growth for each important shopping day is expected to be just 5percent.
“It’s under indexing to the full season, which means it’s outspread out over time,” Patrick Brown, vice director of marketing for growth and insight, Adobe, said. However, the Thanksgiving up to Cyber Monday weekend is expected to remain a high-volume time for sales online, as per Adobe. It anticipates that the weekend will bring in 17% of revenue for the entire season.
“Golden Hours” of E-Commerce “golden hours” of e-commerce between 7-11 p.m. (PT) for Cyber Monday, predicted to generate 3 billion dollars in online sales and a total of $12 million in spending each minute during the most time to spend between 8-9 p.m. (Pacific Time).
Supply chain issues are hitting hard by affecting online shoppers as they receive out-of-stock notifications.
According to Adobe, out-of-stock messages sent by online retailers are up 172% in comparison to January 2020 and are up by 360% in comparison to January 2019.
“This is real for a lot of customers,” Brown stated. “There’s a huge hike in people trying to purchase, but they are just not able to find the goods.”
Apparel is the most out of stock levels, followed by sporting goods, baby items, and electronic devices.
Adobe has been monitoring the rise of prices on the internet for the last 16 months. That trend has continued throughout the lead-up to the time of the year when online retailers usually have their best discounts.
“As we are heading to the holiday season, we see prices are raised 3% when typically we see prices start to come low as we head into the holidays,” Brown explained. “We have never seen online prices increase leading into a holiday season before.”
Adobe predicts that customers might pay an additional 9% on the internet during Cyber Week and that retailers will offer lower discounts.
“Given the supply chain problems and given that brands are less likely to offer discounts – they are holding onto their prices – the discounts will be shallower this year than they have been in previous years,” Brown stated. Adobe believes the discounts to be 5 percent less than they were in the past.
Retailers will continue to offer discounts. However, “the net to net for customers is people will feel like they get discounts but maybe not the deep cuts we are seen in previous periods,” Brown said. Adobe predicts that retailers will likely have their best toys deals during Thanksgiving and Black Friday, with Black Friday being the great day to buy fixtures, tools, bedding, and home improvement projects. Appliance and electronics deals will be at their best on the day following Thanksgiving and Cyber Monday being considered the top day to buy televisions.
Another trend that’s grown significantly is the usage of pay now and buy to later purchases made online. Buy now and pay last orders are up by 44 percent in the current year compared with the same timeframe in 2019 and up 3 percent over the year 2020, Adobe reported. Customers also have the option of making less expensive purchases. The minimum value for orders dropped by 12percent from 2020 to 2021 and then dropped to $225.
Due to the supply chain challenges, Adobe expects retailers with physical stores to look to leverage the possibility of pickup at their locations. Curbside pickup is predicted to make up most purchases in November, similar to last year’s figures; however, it set the record for over 40% in the days leading up to Christmas Eve, which falls on the 22nd and 23rd of December.